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2026, Vol: 15, Issue: 1
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Technical Note
Online Published: 26 Sep 2025
 


Forecasting Energy Consumption on a Microgrid using ARIMA-GRU Model

Lahoucine Oumiguil, Ali Nejmi.


Abstract
Accurate forecasting of energy consumption is crucial for the efficient management and control of modern energy grids, particularly amid the escalating integration of renewable energy sources. This study proposes a hybrid approach that combines the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Gated Recurrent Unit neural network (GRU) to predict energy consumption in a microgrid setting. The proposed hybrid ARIMA-GRU model integrates ARIMA’s residuals with GRU’s non-linear modeling capabilities, enabling enhanced prediction accuracy while capturing both linear and non-linear dependencies in microgrid energy data. The model’s performance is evaluated using real-world energy consumption data, achieving an RMSE of 38.28 kWh, MAE of 31.24 kWh, and MAPE of 10.29%. These results highlight the model’s effectiveness in improving energy forecasting and providing practical insights for better energy management in microgrids.

Key words: ARIMA, GRU, Deep learning, Energy consumption, Microgrid.


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Oumiguil L, Nejmi A. Forecasting Energy Consumption on a Microgrid using ARIMA-GRU Model. Sol. Energy Sustain. Dev.. 2025; 14(2): 15-26.

doi:10.51646/jsesd.v14iSTR2E.791

Web Style

Oumiguil L, Nejmi A. Forecasting Energy Consumption on a Microgrid using ARIMA-GRU Model. https://www.jsesd.org/?mno=302658364 [Access: November 12, 2026].

doi:10.51646/jsesd.v14iSTR2E.791

AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Oumiguil L, Nejmi A. Forecasting Energy Consumption on a Microgrid using ARIMA-GRU Model. Sol. Energy Sustain. Dev.. 2025; 14(2): 15-26.


doi:10.51646/jsesd.v14iSTR2E.791

Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Oumiguil L, Nejmi A. Forecasting Energy Consumption on a Microgrid using ARIMA-GRU Model. Sol. Energy Sustain. Dev.. (2025), [cited November 12, 2026]; 14(2): 15-26.


doi:10.51646/jsesd.v14iSTR2E.791

Harvard Style

Oumiguil, L. & Nejmi, . A. (2025) Forecasting Energy Consumption on a Microgrid using ARIMA-GRU Model. Sol. Energy Sustain. Dev., 14 (2), 15-26.


doi:10.51646/jsesd.v14iSTR2E.791

Turabian Style

Oumiguil, Lahoucine, and Ali Nejmi. 2025. Forecasting Energy Consumption on a Microgrid using ARIMA-GRU Model. Solar Energy and Sustainable Development, 14 (2), 15-26.


doi:10.51646/jsesd.v14iSTR2E.791

Chicago Style

Oumiguil, Lahoucine, and Ali Nejmi. "Forecasting Energy Consumption on a Microgrid using ARIMA-GRU Model." Solar Energy and Sustainable Development 14 (2025), 15-26.


doi:10.51646/jsesd.v14iSTR2E.791

MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Oumiguil, Lahoucine, and Ali Nejmi. "Forecasting Energy Consumption on a Microgrid using ARIMA-GRU Model." Solar Energy and Sustainable Development 14.2 (2025), 15-26. Print.


doi:10.51646/jsesd.v14iSTR2E.791

APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Oumiguil, L. & Nejmi, . A. (2025) Forecasting Energy Consumption on a Microgrid using ARIMA-GRU Model. Solar Energy and Sustainable Development, 14 (2), 15-26.


doi:10.51646/jsesd.v14iSTR2E.791

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